New Orleans Saints: Primed for an upset by the Raiders

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October 8, 2008

New Orleans Saints: Primed for an upset by the Raiders

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Despite having to sit through another telecast with Tony Kornheiser displaying his lack of knowledge, creativity, and clues especially, there was an interesting show on display between the Minnesota Vikings and the New Orleans Saints.� As you know, the Saints are next up on the Raiders hit-list and every media outlet is sure to tell you that they have absolutely no chance in New Orleans.� From what was on display Monday Night, you could make a great case for exactly that.� I'm not sold.

Against the Vikings, the Saints allowed a paltry 44 yards rushing and 226 yards passing.� They sacked the quarterback once, got zero interceptions, and wasn't able to get the Vikings to fumble the ball.� New Orleans was more successful on offense as they passed for 320 yards on 26 receptions on 46 attempts and they rushed for 55 yards on 22 attempts.� They had five fumbles, losing two, and threw two interceptions.

The Vikings played from behind, passed 37 times and had 26 attempts rushing.� In other words, they weren't very balanced on offense, often becoming one-dimensional and nearly getting Frerotte killed.� They also didn't muster much of a pass-rush as they were only able to sack Drew Brees once.

Those are nothing more than loose facts from the game, but when they are looked at as a whole it becomes easy to see the Saints aren't what people think they are.� This game is less about how good or bad the Raiders and Saints are and more about how much stronger their strengths and weaknesses are.

All things being equal, the Raiders are better than the Saints.� I know it is a little more than odd to read that, but first assume that the Raiders defense will not be calling prevent defense in the third quarter and secondly, there's a new playcaller in town named Greg Knapp so expect more passing from the Raiders.

When the Saints pass

The Saints are the top passing team in the league.� Most of that is due to the fact that Reggie Bush is on pace to catch 122 passes this season.� Bush leads the league with 38 receptions and with his speed, there are very few defenses with the personel to stop him.

Unfortunately for the Saints, the Raiders deal in speed.� Thomas Howard might be the fastest linebacker in all of football, and if he's not, then he's in the top five in terms of speed.� I'm not privy to the gameplan, but if it was mine to make, a contingency of Howard, Asomugha, and Huff would be taking turns guarding against him in the passing game.� All of those guys can run with Bush.

The Raiders defense has been able to bring pressure against some of the better pass protecting teams this season.� They rank tied for ninth in sacks with 12 in four games.� In quarterback rating against, they are the 10th best team in the league, allowing only a 76.0 rating.� It's notable that even though the Vikings are ranked 12th in QB rating against, they are ranked 22nd in sacks in five games.

The Raiders will put more pressure on Brees, who is known to throw picks and fumble when under pressure.� Against the Vikings, he fumbled three times.� That's five possible turnovers against a team that doesn't have nearly the same type of pass rush that the Raiders do.� The only drawback for the Raiders is that the Saints have only allowed five sacks on the year.

When the Raiders pass

The Saints have only one sack less than the Raiders in one more game played.� They have a decent pass defense, but even though they are a man coverage team, they are susceptible to the longer passes.� That's why they are ranked 27th against the pass.� Although they only have one less sack than the Raiders, it's 11 sacks in five games and not four.

The onus is upon the Raiders to elevate their 29th ranked passing game to new levels when they travel to New Orleans.� The offensive line is on pace to allow 40 sacks this season, and even though you could blame Russell and his receivers for a few of those, a sack is still a sack.

The Raiders can afford to make the attempt to pass more.� Their virtual-rookie quarterback has shown a remarkable ability to protect the ball.� The Raiders are tied for second for fewest interceptions thrown.� JaMarcus Russell has only thrown one pick all season.� If he can get the time to find an open man downfield, and maintain accuracy on his throws, the Raiders could be a nightmare for the Saints.

When the Saints run

Reggie Bush also leads the Saints in rushing, but it's far less impressive than his receiving stats.� For the year, he has carried the ball 64 times for 212 yards for a measley 3.3 yards per carry.� This is the stat that sheds light on all of his receptions on the year.� This poor ability to run the ball is why the Saints use short passes and screens to unleash the former Trojan.

Being the 29th ranked rushing offense plays right into the hands of a team known to struggle against the run.� This isn't last year's Raiders though.� So far, the Raiders rank 17th against the run.� They've proven to be better in the first three quarters of games, often limiting the opposition during that time.� If they can get a little help from the offense, keeping them off the field as much in the second-half as they have been, it would be a big boost.

Of course, even though you could blame the offense for their lack of plays in the second half, you have to also blame a faulty defensive plan that allows opposing teams to travel at will up and down the field without much resistance.� Now that Lane Kiffin is gone, Raider Nation is hoping that Rob Ryan was just tanking it in those games.

When the Raiders run

The Saints are ranked 16th in the league against the run.� If the Vikings game is any indication, the Raiders should expect quite a bit of eight and nine-man fronts.� Even if they are able to make the Saints pay for not respecting the pass, they'll also have to break the back of New Orleans by gaining three or more yards per carry.� It's a good thing that the Raiders are ranked third in the league.

It's being reported that Justin Fargas will be back for the Raiders.� That's good news for a team with three very talented and injury-prone runners.� Darren McFadden is also expected to be in much better shape than he was a week ago, but now Michael Bush is dinged up with a strained quadriceps muscle.� Even with the backs dinged up, if used properly they will still be able to make an impact in some limited form.

The only problem for the Raiders has been fumbles, which they have five so far.� One fumble was the Russell fumble against Buffalo, while another was the fluke fumble of Bush where the ball landed perfectly on the heel of one of his own blockers.� Fargas has one and McFadden has two.� Luckily, the Saints aren't very good at recovering them as they haven't done so yet this season.

When the teams are special

Janikowski has more range than Gramatica, but they are both historically about the same in accuracy.� Nobody is better than Shane Lechler when it comes to punting.� There are few that could make the claim that they are more dangerous than Reggie Bush when it comes to returning kicks.� So far, the Raiders coverage teams have covered two kickoffs poorly and their punt coverage has been solid.

Johnnie Lee Higgins has been everything that Kiffin promised on draft day on kickoff returns and he hasn't been too bad in punt returns.� Tyvon Branch may finally get an opportunity to return punts or kicks, and from many accounts he could be very good at it.� Until either Higgins or Branch prove otherwise, the edge goes to Bush and the Saints, but by a very small margin.

Overall

I'll stop short of a prediction until later in the week, if I even do make one.� What I will say is that this 2-3 Saints team has done nothing other than pass for a bunch of yards to prove they are better than the Raiders.� I'm not sold, especially with Russell returning to a place he called home field for two years at LSU.� Despite what the naysayers say, if the Raiders locker room is really unaffected negatively by the coaching change, they can beat this Saints team.

Tags: NFL, Oakland Raiders, Raiders

Discussion

18 Comments on "New Orleans Saints: Primed for an upset by the Raiders"

Posted by Patrick Patterson, October 8, 2008 12:28 AM

Kushman- I don't have NFLN. F***in Comcast.

I haven't heard anything about a Raider-Bengal deal.

Posted by KUSHMAN, October 8, 2008 12:52 AM

okay.. i mean if you guys haven't heard anything it's probably BS ... but as usual i got my hopes up when i heard this... because as we all know, the raiders are in diar need for a downfield threat...

haha yea i pay the extra 5 bux a month for NFLN ... it's worth it i think... but yea comcast should have it ...

Posted by Raider n NC, October 8, 2008 12:58 AM

Good column Rob. One part of the game you didn't mention was the wr's. The Saints have better wr's than the Raiders and from what I saw on MNF Devery Henderson is the real deal. I would assume that they'll attack Hall as Aso (unless he gets Bush & they take a crack on his side) will lock his man up. Our wr's will really need to step up if Knapp is going to let Russell throw more and if the running game gets stuffed. Miller will be a viable option of course but, I think either Lelie or Higgins could have a big game if the protection is there during the passing downs.

Go Raiders!!!

Posted by mikeinny, October 8, 2008 3:56 AM

heres the real problem w/ oaks offense !!! i

3RD DOWNS!!!! russell is 8 for 25 for a very bad 32% & 6 sacks !~!!!! compare this to rivers 58 % 2 sacks, cutler 57 % 1 sack! , big ben 63% 8 sacks !!

( 6 sacks cam vs philly in 1 game!,misleading)

now ive seen the where this trend starts " BAD PLAYCALLING " look @ charegr game 1st & goal @ the 6 , and what does kiff call ?? A STRATE DROP BACK WHICH LED TO A SACK !!! ON 1ST DOWN !!! hopefully knapp will do better !!! cause one thing we know as fact now s kiffin was the only "

" PLAYCALLER" that explains alot of the so close yet so far on offense!!!!!

the "O " has got to better now without lamo! there !!!

now all al's gottaa do is fire ryan & staff !!! bring in rvers from chargers ! and afc west title is ours!! for next 100 years !!!!!!!

Posted by Matador, October 8, 2008 7:39 AM

Good write up Rob. I agree with alot of what you wrote but you forgot to mention the 12th man for the Saints. The crowd was deafining and that could be a killer for a young team with basically a rookie QB. The only way the Raiders are going to win is by scoring alot of points probobly in the 30's. And i'm not confident the offense can do that yet. But i hope i'm wrong!!!!

Posted by Raider Scott, October 8, 2008 9:46 AM

Rob,

I'm a die hard fan and I know you are too. But every time we figure out why the Raiders should win our team always finds a way to lose. This is a huge test for the Raiders. Not because of the Saints but because we will see how they react to the coaching change. I think this game looms large for our season. We've had an extra week to prepare and they need to win. If our team loses I think it will set the tone for the remainder of the year. It is a huge game and I hope we can manufacture a win instead of us fading in the end.

Posted by KUSHMAN, October 8, 2008 10:05 AM

yea if we can stop brees.. we'll keep it low scoring for sure... because we all know how good we are against the run.

!ATTENTION! rob or pat or anyone did you see or hear about nfl network last night talking about the raiders and bengals making a trade for a WR and CJ is involved somehow? because i missed nfl access last night.. is my friend smokin crack or what?!

Posted by DRS, October 8, 2008 10:07 AM

Good stuff Rob! I'm with you on this one! I don't think its going to be an upset if the raiders win because they have talent! It's all about the team gelling together and hopefully Cable can work his magic! He needs to get them pumped up and primed up to whoop some ass coming out of this bye week! If they win this game, the team will believe in the new coach!

Raiders win 24 - 20

Posted by Raider209, October 8, 2008 10:20 AM

Okay, so it looks pretty good on paper and I like what I've seen from the defense so far. Fargas coming back is also a huge factor in this game, but I'm not going to watch this game with high expectations like I did the night we played Denver. I also like the fact that Knapp will be making the calls for the offense, I don't think hes afraid to experience with Russ and let him throw the ball deep because we all know he's built for that. I do think we will look different on sunday. GO RAIDERS!!!

#10

Posted by ofdizzle, October 8, 2008 1:33 PM

im still a believer.... i still believe in my oakland raiders......

#11

Posted by Rob Calonge, October 8, 2008 8:36 PM

Talk about killing a comment thread. :-)

#12

Posted by juice, October 8, 2008 8:50 PM

Checked some news on the Saints, and they have quite a few injuries to deal with. As we all know, Marcus Colston and Jeremy Shockey are out, as well as defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis. David Patten missed last game, and from what I read, they just put cornerback Tracey Porter on Injured Reserve. That's a little understated because from what I saw Porter played pretty well against the Vikings. Deuce McAlister was back in the lineup Monday night, but didn't really seem to find any room to run. Then again nobody really finds room to run against the Vikings. It's set up for an upset for the Raiders, so let's hope that they can finish in the fourth quarter this time around.

#13

Posted by Umer Waris, October 8, 2008 10:48 PM

Peterson had only 30-something yards on 27 carries against the Saints D.

That does not bode well for our rushing game especiallly when the Vikings have a veteran, Pro Bowl O-line.

Fargas's up-the-gut, headstrong running will be much needed. We might be seeing quite alot of play action from Russell. Hopefully, our WRs can step up this time around.

The Saint's passing game is good as well and Hall will have to be on his man tight and not give up those 10-15 yard plays.

I just hurt my knee this practice.... bummer.

#14

Posted by Jean Picard, October 9, 2008 2:02 AM

Great article. I really liked it. However, using stats to predict a game in the NFL is not very reliable.

The bottom line is this: The Saints have a very talented team. They have weapons every place, and with a deep bench. Brees does not get rattled easily, so don't look for that. The defense is the Saints weakness. The Raiders will have to outscore the Saints, because Nothing the Raiders have will slow them down.

#15

Posted by WH1TE E, October 9, 2008 5:33 AM

PREDICTION - the Raiders dominate the Saints till the fourth quarter. At the end of the 3rd quarter, the Raiders are up 24-0. Final Score 24-500 Saints, thanks to our wonderful 4th quarter D. Sorry, just feeling a little pessimistic about the team lately.

#16

Posted by Raiderforlife, October 9, 2008 11:28 PM

This has to be a special game for Russell, back in Louisiana and all. I think we upset the Saints with a big game from JaMarcus and the defense will contain Bush. I think Cable will instill in the team to put opponents away when they have them down. We have be playing not to lose instead of playing to win.

When you get up on a team you have to keep attacking, not sit on the ball. I didn't care much for Kiffin's clock management, too many times we ran out of time at the end of games. Cable must improve on this. Can someone say play-action pass? We have to throw on first down more often, another thing Kiffin hardly ever did. Still bleeding silver and black. Go Raiders!

#17

Posted by Grod0824, October 10, 2008 12:06 AM

The Saints are a much better team than their record shows, they have only lost those 3 games by a total of 10 points, 2 missed game winning field goals, a failed 3rd and 1, and a blown call by the ref. Colston and Shockey are game time decisions, im pretty sure that Colston will play, Shockey i dunno about (Maybe). The vikings game was a bad indication of the saints team, you won't see this team commit 5 fumbles and 2 interceptions and 10 plus penalties all in one game. The poor start is also can be attributed to the injuries that have occured to the follwing players missing games:

Marques Colston, Jeremy Shockey,Sedrick Ellis, Aaron Glenn, Antwan Lake, Mike Mckenzie, David Patten,Terrance Copper, Aaron Stecker, Scott Fujita, Mark Campbell, (Outstanding Rookie Corner) Tracy Porter (He's outstanding because everybody knows we have bad CB's and he's becoming a bright spot), Deuce McAllister, and thought to be the 2nd coming of Marques Colston another rookie Adrian Arrington, and a promising rooke DT Demarrio Pressley. That is a very long list of players that have missed games throughout 5 games. Our Starting receivers have only played the season opener, D.McAllister has only really played one full game, and A. Arrington, D. Pressley, and Tracy Porter are 3 of our 6 draft picks that are out indefinitely on the IR due to injuries sustained in training camp or week 5 in Porter's Case.

#18

Posted by Dean, October 10, 2008 7:20 AM

This article is kinda bias towards the Raiders. To be Honest, which team that plays the saints doesnt come in with the intention to rattle Brees. Which team has done it, NONE! To say the Raiders are more talented is NONSENSE. Duece will run on you, Drew will pass on you and our weakness is PASS Defense and you dont pass good enough.

GAME SET MATCH Saints 31 Oakland 17