Not since Alcoholics Anonymous has there been a more well funded endeavor that has yielded such low and undocumented results than predicting the NFL draft. Mocks are fun, and all of the regular football fans get to go with whichever version they most agree with each year. Or just make one up of their own. In reviewing previous years mocks you may find you are probably better off coming up with your own. I have compiled a group of draft experts by the number of picks they predicted correctly. My group of “experts” consists of ESPN’s Mel Kiper (of course), Todd McShay of scouts inc. (of course), Jeffri Chadiha of Sports Illustrated, and USA today’s crack team of Jarrett Bell, Nate Davis, Sean Leahy, Matt Pitzer, and Rob Rang. Here are the results:
Let’s start with the best of the bunch: Matt Pitzer of USA Today
First off he was able to correctly predict the entire top five drafted players which was something NO ONE else was able to do. Kudos to him for that. He also Predicted the Niners would get LB Patrick Willis, the Giants would get CB Aaron Ross, and the Broncos would get Jarvis Moss. Denver even traded up to get Moss which is even more impressive that he got that one right.
Number of correct picks: 8
Then 2nd place is USA today’s Nate Davis
He, like 99.9% of everyone else, got JaMarcus Russell correct and he also got Calvin Johnson going to the Lions. He got Gaines Adams going to the bucs correct and he was the only one of our experts to predict the Redskins would take LaRon Landry with pick #6. He also had AP going to the Vikes, Lawrence Timmons going to the Steelers and Reggie Nelson going to Jacksonville which was also impressive because that was the other end of the Denver trade.
Number of correct picks: 7
There is a three way tie for 3rd place between USA today’s Jarrett Bell and Rob Rang and Todd McShay
All three, of course, got Jrock correct. Bell and Rang also got Dwayne Bowe going to the Chiefs which was a good call on their parts. Bell got CJ going to the Lions, and Gaines Adams to the Bucs to get 3 of the first 4. Rang had AP to the Vikes and then shined a bit near the bottom of the first by getting Brandon Meriweather going to the Pats and, along with McShay, got Ben Grubbs going to Baltimore. Bell got Jarvis Moss going to Denver to finish it out. McShay also got Lawrence Timmons going to the Steelers, Reggie Nelson going to the Jags, and Aaron Ross going to the Giants.
Number of correct picks for each: 5
The consolation “throwing darts at the draft board” group is headed up by USA today’s Sean Leahy along with Jeffri Chadiha of Sports Illustrated.
As usual they are given the “No Duh” call of Jrock. And then a lot of usual suspects that were often predicted correctly: Chadiha got Lawrence Timmons to Pittsburgh, Dwayne Bowe to KC, and Jarvis Moss to Denver. Leahy got Aaron Ross to NY, and Ben Grubbs to Baltimore. But he was the only one to correctly predict the Niners taking Joe Staley. All but Russell were below the 20th pick so I will give them a little credit for that.
Number of correct picks for each: 4
Then last and certainly least we have ESPN’s own resident expert Mel Kiper.
Even with the JaMarcus bump, the only other players he predicted correctly were CB Leon Hall going to the Bengals and TE Greg Olsen going to the Bears.
Number of correct picks: 3
Let’s spell that out: THREE!… OUT OF THIRTY TWO! I wish I could get paid for going 3 for 32 at anything. That kind of average wouldn’t get you on a minor league baseball team. That is Allen Iverson shooting every shot from half court with his eyes closed.
So the best score is 8 (whoopedee doo), and the worst score is 3 (from the guy who gets paid the most for his predictions) coming in with and average of: 5…of 32…which is 20%. So we are all taking advice from guys that are right 20% of the time and ESPN is surrounding their media coverage around a guy who is right just 10% of the time.
I think I will stick with my own ideas. Someone hand me some darts.